Monarch Overwintering Counts Down 59%, Second Lowest Recorded
By Jim Lovett, Monarch Watch (Feb 8, 2024)
Mexico Overwintering Numbers Announced
Yesterday, the WWF-Telmex Telcel Foundation Alliance, in collaboration with the National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (CONANP), the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), and the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR), announced the total forest area occupied by overwintering monarch colonies. Nine (9) colonies were located this winter season with a total area of 0.90 hectares, a 59.3% decrease from the previous season (2.21 ha). This is the second lowest number counted to date – the lowest was 0.67 ha during the 2013–2014 overwintering season.
From a Q&A with Chip Taylor, Founding Director of Monarch Watch and Kristen Baum, Director of Monarch Watch:
Q: Was this news expected?
Taylor: This news is a shock to all who follow monarchs. The depth of this decline is beyond our experience, and the implications for the future of the monarch migration are surely of concern. However, populations have been low in the past. This count does not signal the end of the eastern monarch migration.
Q: Why is the population so small this year?
Taylor: Monarch numbers are at a near all-time low because of drought conditions last fall that extended from Oklahoma deep into central Mexico. Droughts reduce flowering and therefore nectar production, and monarchs need the sugars in nectar to fuel the migration and to develop the fat reserves that get them through the winter.
Q: Will monarchs recover?
Taylor: Catastrophic mortality due to extreme weather events is part of their history. The numbers have been low many times in the past and have recovered, and they will again. Monarchs are resilient.
Q: What can people do to help monarchs recover?
Baum: To recover, monarchs will need an abundance of milkweeds and nectar sources. We need to get more milkweed and nectar plants in the ground, and we all need to contribute to this effort.
Please see the Monarch Watch Blog for additional information and continue reading to find out how you can support Monarch Watch's efforts to get more milkweed in the ground.
Species Status Assessment and the three r’s
By Chip Taylor, Director, Monarch Watch
October 2023
When species are being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) by the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), a Species Status Assessment (SSA) is usually prepared. This assessment is based on the available science, and in some cases, the opinions of scientists that work closely with that species. At the core of the assessment are the three r’s: resilience, redundancy and representation. Resilience refers to data that may or may not support the ability of the species to respond to stochastic (random) events. Redundancy represents an assessment of the ability of a species to respond to catastrophic mortality. Representation seems to have two interpretations, the ability of a species to adapt to long term changes in the environment and/or the species role in the ecological processes in the range it occupies...
The silent partner in the push to have monarchs regulated is their cultural value. They are an iconic species. Their migration is remarkable. They are a species of wonder with a remarkable capacity to traverse a continent. Their beauty, and accessibility, along with charisma, generate emotional responses like no other insect. They are part of our heritage and reminders that we are the stewards of their fate being that we dominate the landscape and how it is used or misused. Biologically, they are an extraordinary example of the drive to survive and reproduce. Much remains unknown of how they respond to the physical cues in the environment and how those cues are processed in a manner that leads to behavioral responses. They are a model species for this research area. None of these considerations can be part of the SSA, yet they heighten the concerns about the need to sustain the monarch migration.
Read the full article here.
IUCN Changes Migratory Monarch Status from Endangered to Vulnerable
December 11, 2023
On December 30, 2021, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) added the migratory monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) to the Red List of Threatened Species as endangered. In June 2023, the IUCN Standards and Petitions Committee received a petition regarding their listing of the migratory monarch butterfly. The petition challenged the appropriateness of population models used in its assessment over the past ten years. After much deliberation, the Standards and Petitions Committee announced on September 27, 2023, that the IUCN would change their listing of the migratory monarch butterfly from endangered to vulnerable on December 11, 2023.
The primary reason for the shift in status was not due to a change in the current status of migratory monarchs. Many methods exist for examining population trends over time, all of which are complex, especially for a migratory insect with a broad geographic range. IUCN-specified criteria are based on the level of population reduction over the past 10 years or three generations, whichever is longer. In the original review, population data demonstrated a long-term population decline in migratory monarchs over multiple decades. When re-evaluated per IUCN criteria, the population decline within the last 10 years did not match the decline of the longer-term trend. Therefore the review warranted a change in IUCN status to be congruent with its evaluation criteria. Both methods of population evaluation used were scientifically valid. The monarch's IUCN status change highlights science's dynamic nature and the imperative need for continuous data collection and evaluation.
Read the full article here. |